Craps dice control: does dice setting work?

Dice control, otherwise known as dice setting, is a controversial subject where supporters state that dice can be thrown in particular ways that intentionally influence the outcome. Many reputable casino consultants claim that it is simply impossible. But is this really the case? Actually no, it isn’t. And there is clear proof to indicate this, although the casino community tends to be slow learning because many people rely on what they read, instead of testing the theories for themselves.

How players claim dice setting works

Self-professed dice setting experts claim to be able to control the rotation of the dice. Basically the theory is if the dice are thrown at the correct angle, the bounce off the wall at the back of the table will be limited, and that the axis the dice are on will not have changed. In our experience, this tells only a fragment of the story.

An important rule of craps is that the dice must hit the back wall of the table. However, some casinos will allow the dice to not hit the back wall, and just let you off with a warning. Most notable experts do agree that without the addition of the back wall head, the dice can be controlled to a point that overcomes the house edge. But the problem is a player cannot repeatedly avoid the back wall. And if players make a very large bet specifically for an occasion when the back wall is avoided, the casino staff are more likely to reject the shoot. So merely avoiding the back wall is not viable as a long-term strategy.

How dice setting has been tested

It’s not uncommon for self-professed professionals to know very little about important matters. Take for example Steve Forte. To be fair, he is extremely knowledgeable about casinos and advantage play in general. You could say he knows a fair amount of information about almost anything involved in casinos. But when it comes to dice setting, his tests involved the direct drop of dice. His conclusion was that the direct drop resulted in random results, so he failed to see how any shoot would make outcomes more predictable. However, the fact is the spin trajectory of the dice makes outcomes more predictable. If you merely drop a dice, the outcome is actually more likely to be unpredictable.

Another individual tested shoots of dice with precision equipment. He concluded that the role of a dice can be predictable to a degree, but only if the particular release or shoot of the dice is within a very strict tolerance. Basically it means that the dice must be thrown almost precisely the same way every time, otherwise the outcome is as good as random. And again in this case the significance of the trajectory and role of the dice was neglected.

What we have found

Instead of learning from articles and experiences of other people, we conducted our own experiments. Firstly we purchased equipment to simulate a craps table, which included the felt and the back wall with the bumper. We also purchased two sets of dice for our tests – both regulation dice, and some from another supplier.

We determined the outcomes over thousands of straight drops of the dice. And sure enough, the drop outcomes were quite random, at least to the point where there was no evidence to suggest that outcomes were predictable. But then we changed the angle at which the dice was dropped, so that the edge was the first part to hit the felt. This created a forward role effect, and very clearly we found that the outcome of the roles was predictable. So the first part of the test concluded that the so far limited testing indicated a role can be predictable. But testing on a full-scale craps table is a very different thing.

Before further testing on a real table, or at least our home-made table, we used the services of a 3-D physics simulator programmer. The idea was to determine which physical variables of a dice shoot would result in the most predictable outcomes. With a few tweaks to ensure the accuracy of the physics, we ran the simulation over millions of shoots. Some variables produced results we could call random. But other variables had a very different outcome, and we had narrowed down the principles of a shoot that would make accurate dice setting a reality.

We were aware that a computer simulated reality, and a real table, can and do have differences. But a least the physics in the simulator were accurate enough to give us something to aim for.

Once we had determined which variables or attributes of a dice shoots made the outcomes more predictable, we tested the principles in the real world. On the table with real dice, there were some obstacles to overcome because we couldn’t precisely throw the dice in the same way. It did involve quite a bit of skill to get it right. And mind you, even hundreds of shoots is very tiresome.

In total, we recorded 3000 shoots, and recorded every one of them with 300 frames per second video. The outcome is we were able to achieve a very clear statistical edge.

As far as we’re concerned, there is no doubt in our mind that the throw of a dice can be manipulated with particular techniques. However, the dice setting techniques and courses we have purchased mostly do not do what they are supposed to do. They use an incorrect technique that makes little to no difference to the predictability of shoots.

We aren’t craps experts, but we all have scientific backgrounds, with two of us having degrees in Applied Physics. And we conclusively proved that dice setting is a reality with the right technique. However, at this stage we do not intend to release further information. We are not selling any course, nor will we ever. We may apply the knowledge for monetary gains, but at this stage we still have better options. Our calculations indicate that the realistic edge that can be achieved is greater than 5%. More information, including videos, will be published in time.